The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has predicted that 2022 will be the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39mph or higher), of which six to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or higher), including three to six major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence.
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season has been attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced West African monsoon. An enhanced West African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.
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